Potential for early warning of viral influenza activity in the community by monitoring clinical diagnoses of influenza in hospital emergency departments

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Although syndromic surveillance systems are gaining acceptance as useful tools in public health, doubts remain about whether the anticipated early warning benefits exist. Many assessments of this question do not adequately account for the confounding effects of autocorrelation and trend when comparing surveillance time series and few compare the syndromic data stream against a continuous laboratory-based standard. We used time series methods to assess whether monitoring of daily counts of Emergency Department (ED) visits assigned a clinical diagnosis of influenza could offer earlier warning of increased incidence of viral influenza in the population compared with surveillance of daily counts of positive influenza test results from laboratories.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>For the five-year period 2001 to 2005, time series were assembled of ED visits assigned a provisional ED diagnosis of influenza and of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Poisson regression models were fitted to both time series to minimise the confounding effects of trend and autocorrelation and to control for other calendar influences. To assess the relative timeliness of the two series, cross-correlation analysis was performed on the model residuals. Modelling and cross-correlation analysis were repeated for each individual year.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Using the full five-year time series, short-term changes in the ED time series were estimated to precede changes in the laboratory series by three days. For individual years, the estimate was between three and 18 days. The time advantage estimated for the individual years 2003–2005 was consistently between three and four days.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Monitoring time series of ED visits clinically diagnosed with influenza could potentially provide three days early warning compared with surveillance of laboratory-confirmed influenza. When current laboratory processing and reporting delays are taken into account this time advantage is even greater.</p

Assessing Syndromic Surveillance of Cardiovascular Outcomes from Emergency Department Chief Complaint Data in New York City

Prospective syndromic surveillance of emergency department visits has been used for near-real time tracking of communicable diseases to detect outbreaks or other unexpected disease clusters. The utility of syndromic surveillance for tracking cardiovascular events, which may be influenced by environmental factors and influenza, has not been evaluated. We developed and evaluated a method for tracking cardiovascular events using emergency department free-text chief complaints.There were three phases to our analysis. First we applied text processing algorithms based on sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value to chief complaint data reported by 11 New York City emergency departments for which ICD-9 discharge diagnosis codes were available. Second, the same algorithms were applied to data reported by a larger sample of 50 New York City emergency departments for which discharge diagnosis was unavailable. From this more complete data, we evaluated the consistency of temporal variation of cardiovascular syndromic events and hospitalizations from 76 New York City hospitals. Finally, we examined associations between particulate matter ≤2.5 µm (PM(2.5)), syndromic events, and hospitalizations. Sensitivity and positive predictive value were low for syndromic events, while specificity was high. Utilizing the larger sample of emergency departments, a strong day of week pattern and weak seasonal trend were observed for syndromic events and hospitalizations. These time-series were highly correlated after removing the day-of-week, holiday, and seasonal trends. The estimated percent excess risks in the cold season (October to March) were 1.9% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.6, 3.2), 2.1% (95% CI: 0.9, 3.3), and 1.8% (95%CI: 0.5, 3.0) per same-day 10 µg/m(3) increase in PM(2.5) for cardiac-only syndromic data, cardiovascular syndromic data, and hospitalizations, respectively.Near real-time emergency department chief complaint data may be useful for timely surveillance of cardiovascular morbidity related to ambient air pollution and other environmental events

Summary of data reported to CDC's national automated biosurveillance system, 2008

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>BioSense is the US national automated biosurveillance system. Data regarding chief complaints and diagnoses are automatically pre-processed into 11 broader syndromes (e.g., respiratory) and 78 narrower sub-syndromes (e.g., asthma). The objectives of this report are to present the types of illness and injury that can be studied using these data and the frequency of visits for the syndromes and sub-syndromes in the various data types; this information will facilitate use of the system and comparison with other systems.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>For each major data source, we summarized information on the facilities, timeliness, patient demographics, and rates of visits for each syndrome and sub-syndrome.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In 2008, the primary data sources were the 333 US Department of Defense, 770 US Veterans Affairs, and 532 civilian hospital emergency department facilities. Median times from patient visit to record receipt at CDC were 2.2 days, 2.0 days, and 4 hours for these sources respectively. Among sub-syndromes, we summarize mean 2008 visit rates in 45 infectious disease categories, 11 injury categories, 7 chronic disease categories, and 15 other categories.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We present a systematic summary of data that is automatically available to public health departments for monitoring and responding to emergencies.</p

Accuracy of syndrome definitions based on diagnoses in physician claims

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Community clinics offer potential for timelier outbreak detection and monitoring than emergency departments. However, the accuracy of syndrome definitions used in surveillance has never been evaluated in community settings. This study's objective was to assess the accuracy of syndrome definitions based on diagnostic codes in physician claims for identifying 5 syndromes (fever, gastrointestinal, neurological, rash, and respiratory including influenza-like illness) in community clinics.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We selected a random sample of 3,600 community-based primary care physicians who practiced in the fee-for-service system in the province of Quebec, Canada in 2005-2007. We randomly selected 10 visits per physician from their claims, stratifying on syndrome type and presence, diagnosis, and month. Double-blinded chart reviews were conducted by telephone with consenting physicians to obtain information on patient diagnoses for each sampled visit. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value (PPV) of physician claims were estimated by comparison to chart review.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>1,098 (30.5%) physicians completed the chart review. A chart entry on the date of the corresponding claim was found for 10,529 (95.9%) visits. The sensitivity of syndrome definitions based on diagnostic codes in physician claims was low, ranging from 0.11 (fever) to 0.44 (respiratory), the specificity was high, and the PPV was moderate to high, ranging from 0.59 (fever) to 0.85 (respiratory). We found that rarely used diagnostic codes had a higher probability of being false-positives, and that more commonly used diagnostic codes had a higher PPV.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Future research should identify physician, patient, and encounter characteristics associated with the accuracy of diagnostic codes in physician claims. This would enable public health to improve syndromic surveillance, either by focusing on physician claims whose diagnostic code is more likely to be accurate, or by using all physician claims and weighing each according to the likelihood that its diagnostic code is accurate.</p

Whole Genome Sequence Analysis of Cryptococcus gattii from the Pacific Northwest Reveals Unexpected Diversity

A recent emergence of Cryptococcus gattii in the Pacific Northwest involves strains that fall into three primarily clonal molecular subtypes: VGIIa, VGIIb and VGIIc. Multilocus sequence typing (MLST) and variable number tandem repeat analysis appear to identify little diversity within these molecular subtypes. Given the apparent expansion of these subtypes into new geographic areas and their ability to cause disease in immunocompetent individuals, differentiation of isolates belonging to these subtypes could be very important from a public health perspective. We used whole genome sequence typing (WGST) to perform fine-scale phylogenetic analysis on 20 C. gattii isolates, 18 of which are from the VGII molecular type largely responsible for the Pacific Northwest emergence. Analysis both including and excluding (289,586 SNPs and 56,845 SNPs, respectively) molecular types VGI and VGIII isolates resulted in phylogenetic reconstructions consistent, for the most part, with MLST analysis but with far greater resolution among isolates. The WGST analysis presented here resulted in identification of over 100 SNPs among eight VGIIc isolates as well as unique genotypes for each of the VGIIa, VGIIb and VGIIc isolates. Similar levels of genetic diversity were found within each of the molecular subtype isolates, despite the fact that the VGIIb clade is thought to have emerged much earlier. The analysis presented here is the first multi-genome WGST study to focus on the C. gattii molecular subtypes involved in the Pacific Northwest emergence and describes the tools that will further our understanding of this emerging pathogen

Search for squarks and gluinos in events with isolated leptons, jets and missing transverse momentum at s√=8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The results of a search for supersymmetry in final states containing at least one isolated lepton (electron or muon), jets and large missing transverse momentum with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider are reported. The search is based on proton-proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy s√=8 TeV collected in 2012, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20 fb−1. No significant excess above the Standard Model expectation is observed. Limits are set on supersymmetric particle masses for various supersymmetric models. Depending on the model, the search excludes gluino masses up to 1.32 TeV and squark masses up to 840 GeV. Limits are also set on the parameters of a minimal universal extra dimension model, excluding a compactification radius of 1/R c = 950 GeV for a cut-off scale times radius (ΛR c) of approximately 30

Evidence for the Higgs-boson Yukawa coupling to tau leptons with the ATLAS detector

Results of a search for H → τ τ decays are presented, based on the full set of proton-proton collision data recorded by the ATLAS experiment at the LHC during 2011 and 2012. The data correspond to integrated luminosities of 4.5 fb−1 and 20.3 fb−1 at centre-of-mass energies of √s = 7 TeV and √s = 8 TeV respectively. All combinations of leptonic (τ → `νν¯ with ` = e, µ) and hadronic (τ → hadrons ν) tau decays are considered. An excess of events over the expected background from other Standard Model processes is found with an observed (expected) significance of 4.5 (3.4) standard deviations. This excess provides evidence for the direct coupling of the recently discovered Higgs boson to fermions. The measured signal strength, normalised to the Standard Model expectation, of µ = 1.43 +0.43 −0.37 is consistent with the predicted Yukawa coupling strength in the Standard Model

Measurements of fiducial and differential cross sections for Higgs boson production in the diphoton decay channel at s√=8 TeV with ATLAS

Measurements of fiducial and differential cross sections are presented for Higgs boson production in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of s√=8 TeV. The analysis is performed in the H → γγ decay channel using 20.3 fb−1 of data recorded by the ATLAS experiment at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. The signal is extracted using a fit to the diphoton invariant mass spectrum assuming that the width of the resonance is much smaller than the experimental resolution. The signal yields are corrected for the effects of detector inefficiency and resolution. The pp → H → γγ fiducial cross section is measured to be 43.2 ±9.4(stat.) − 2.9 + 3.2 (syst.) ±1.2(lumi)fb for a Higgs boson of mass 125.4GeV decaying to two isolated photons that have transverse momentum greater than 35% and 25% of the diphoton invariant mass and each with absolute pseudorapidity less than 2.37. Four additional fiducial cross sections and two cross-section limits are presented in phase space regions that test the theoretical modelling of different Higgs boson production mechanisms, or are sensitive to physics beyond the Standard Model. Differential cross sections are also presented, as a function of variables related to the diphoton kinematics and the jet activity produced in the Higgs boson events. The observed spectra are statistically limited but broadly in line with the theoretical expectations

Search for squarks and gluinos with the ATLAS detector in final states with jets and missing transverse momentum using √s=8 TeV proton-proton collision data

A search for squarks and gluinos in final states containing high-p T jets, missing transverse momentum and no electrons or muons is presented. The data were recorded in 2012 by the ATLAS experiment in s√=8 TeV proton-proton collisions at the Large Hadron Collider, with a total integrated luminosity of 20.3 fb−1. Results are interpreted in a variety of simplified and specific supersymmetry-breaking models assuming that R-parity is conserved and that the lightest neutralino is the lightest supersymmetric particle. An exclusion limit at the 95% confidence level on the mass of the gluino is set at 1330 GeV for a simplified model incorporating only a gluino and the lightest neutralino. For a simplified model involving the strong production of first- and second-generation squarks, squark masses below 850 GeV (440 GeV) are excluded for a massless lightest neutralino, assuming mass degenerate (single light-flavour) squarks. In mSUGRA/CMSSM models with tan β = 30, A 0 = −2m 0 and μ > 0, squarks and gluinos of equal mass are excluded for masses below 1700 GeV. Additional limits are set for non-universal Higgs mass models with gaugino mediation and for simplified models involving the pair production of gluinos, each decaying to a top squark and a top quark, with the top squark decaying to a charm quark and a neutralino. These limits extend the region of supersymmetric parameter space excluded by previous searches with the ATLAS detector